Published on Sat Dec 23 2017

Online Forecasting Matrix Factorization

San Gultekin, John Paisley

The problem of forecasting high dimensional time series is considered. Such time series can be modeled as matrices. When missing values are present, low rankMatrix factorization approaches are suitable for predicting future values.

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Abstract

In this paper the problem of forecasting high dimensional time series is considered. Such time series can be modeled as matrices where each column denotes a measurement. In addition, when missing values are present, low rank matrix factorization approaches are suitable for predicting future values. This paper formally defines and analyzes the forecasting problem in the online setting, i.e. where the data arrives as a stream and only a single pass is allowed. We present and analyze novel matrix factorization techniques which can learn low-dimensional embeddings effectively in an online manner. Based on these embeddings a recursive minimum mean square error estimator is derived, which learns an autoregressive model on them. Experiments with two real datasets with tens of millions of measurements show the benefits of the proposed approach.